Wanna buy Siberia?
By John Ellis, Boston Globe Columnist
It’s a thin line between hope and fear. Six months ago, financial markets
were bustling and there was learned talk in elite circles that perhaps the
business cycle no longer applied. Today fear is spreading to the boundary
lines of panic. President Clinton was not exaggerating Sunday when he said
the world stood on the edge of a ‘financial precipice.’
As detailed in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, a global credit crisis looms
at exactly the moment credit extension is crucial to restoring confidence.
To make matters worse, finance ministers at the meeting of the International
Monetary Fund and the World Bank were unable to agree on a coherent response
to the crisis. Markets from Hong Kong to New York to London continue to roil
Deflation threatens virtually every national economy, including our own.
There is no world government to deal with what has become a global crisis.
Most of what is proposed reeks of throwing good money after bad. Doomsday
scenarios are no longer dismissed out of hand. The world financial crisis
offers President Clinton the opportunity to fix the problem, completely change
the map of geopolitics, forestall his impeachment by the House of
Representatives, and earn him a place in history worthy of his ambition.
All he has to do is call Walter Mead at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Six years ago, Mead proposed that the United States buy southwestern Siberia
for $1 trillion to $2 trillion. At the time, the Russian president, Boris
Yeltsin, had offered to sell oil fields, production plants, and land to the
United States to help pay down some of Russia’s then $70 billion in foreign
debt. President Bush dismissed the idea as crazy and far-fetched, as well
it might have been at that time.
But things are different today. On Wednesday, roughly 40 million Russians
joined a nationwide strike to protest years of unpaid wages and pensions.
In the last six years the average Russian has seen his or her income drop
from $20 per month to virtually nothing.
The near-term outlook could hardly be bleaker. According to the Journal,
Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 5 percent this year. Inflation
is expected to reach 200 percent. Federal tax revenues are collapsing, and
the ruble’s decline in value continues apace. Russia is a country on the
verge of economic collapse.
Mead’s proposal fixes all that with the stroke of a pen. A $1 trillion purchase
of southwestern Siberia pays off Russia’s debt, stabilizes its currency,
upgrades its infrastructure, and leaves more than enough left over to pay
all back wages to every last pensioner. There might even be enough left over
for an Alaska-style rebate to every Russian citizen, assuming the kleptocracy
doesn’t skim more than 20 percent off the top. Support for the sale of Siberia
in Russia would be unanimous. [ Unanimous, my ass, it would start WWIII!
] In return, the United States would acquire a land mass larger than
its own with a population of 15 million people. ‘The combination of new
territories in Asia,’ Mead wrote, ‘and a vast, suddenly solvent market
in European Russia would amount, literally, to a new frontier with new
opportunities and challenges for generations to come. This deal would double
our size and put us on the Pacific Rim at the intersection of China, Korea,
‘There’s more.’ Mead continued. ‘Part of the deal would be for cash and
part for credits; with, say, half the money, the Russians could place orders
in the United States. Fiber-optics, consultants, computers, machine tools,
whatever they wanted from whoever made the best deal as long as the stuff
was American-made. Over a 20-year payment period, we would see something
like $75 billion in exports each year to Russia. Minimum. That means 1 million
jobs in today’s 50 states. Even with all the incidental expenses – environment
cleanup, infrastructure – the deal would more than pay for itself.’
Siberia is a land rich in natural resources. Acquiring its southwestern shank,
America would gain the warm-water port of Vladivostok, the great timberlands
to the northwest, and all the mining rights therein. Overnight we would become
the world’s largest oil producer.
Running up the American flag over Siberia would create an opportunity for
global investors greater than anything since Asia in the post-World War II
era. No one would invest in Siberia today. But if it was an American territory
on its way to becoming an American state (or states), a gold rush would follow.
In 1803, President Thomas Jefferson did just such a deal. Napoleon was in
a financial and political jam. Jefferson made him an offer. The result was
the Louisiana Purchase. The Siberian Purchase makes every bit as much sense.
It probably won’t be considered by the Clinton team. They are preoccupied
with more urgent matters, like the head count on impeachment. Unless Clinton
does something that changes everything, however, that head count will never
add up. The Siberian Solution, far-fetched as it seems, is Clinton’s and
the world’s way out of a very bad jam.
SIBERIAN STATES OF AMERICA
By Yuri Ephimenko, the Advisor of the Association “Far East –
Recently the American press seriously discussed the project of Walter Mead
“to save Russia by buying for USD 2-3 trillion the Russian Far Eastern and
This question was raised in the “Boston Globe” and discussed in a few central
Russian newspapers. But nobody asks the opinion of Siberian and Far Eastern
residents. I think that we must seriously consider this question. Moreover,
exactly 150 years ago Russia and USA had started to compete in the Pacific
Region. And I want to stress that they “had started”, as the competition
continues today and it will determine many regional political events in the
21-st Century. Let’s take a look at the roots and history of this competition.
The two major events happed in 1848. That was a beginning of the first Russian
naval expedition of Gennady Nevelskoi, who investigated the Low Amur-River
coastal area and established port settlements. At the same time the member
of the Supreme Court of USA Palmer submitted the famous “Siberian Note” to
the President of USA. Palmer offered to colonize Amur-River area for arrangement
of shipping, shipbuilding industries, farming and trade. That was not the
first meeting of the two colonization waves, one was the Russians coming
from the West, and the second one was the Americans coming from the East.
In 1846 after winning Texas and California from Mexico, the Americans suddenly
found the Russian America. Russia colonized Aulet Islands, Alaska and the
vast area of California in the beginning of the 19-th Century. The Russian
Czar Alexander- I had declined a proposal from the King of Hawaii to join
Russia. So, Americans used help from the Russian government to force the
Russians from the West Coast. The major role in this deal was played by Foreign
Minister of Russia Karl Nesselrode, who during 40 years of his being at high
post did a lot of harm to Russia.
In 1848 the expedition of Gennady Nevelskoy overran the Palmer Note plan
by establishing the Russian flag in the Amur-River area. When the USA naval
expedition headed by Captain Ridgold later came to the Prymorye coast, they
found it was already a Russian territory. Another colonization attempt was
made by USA in 1858, when an American entrepreneur , Defreeze , offered to
the Governor-General Muravyov-Amurky a deal to settle American colonists
for farming, shipyards, and trade and providing with property rights of the
land. Muravyev said that he remembers the destiny of Mexico: “Farmers came
the first and then troops joined them” and declined the proposal. But Americans
are brilliant politicians.
In 1859 they started talks about the sale of Alaska and 8 years later completed
the Alaska deal. At that time Alaska was governed by a Russian-American Company,
which at the end of 1850-th provided 142 thousand of Silver Rubles profits
to the shareholders. But the Company fast went broke because an American
lobby in the Russian government canceled all its benefits. In this way the
sale of Alaska looked as a “reasonable deal”. The key figure in this deal
was the Great Prince Konstantin who was the lobbyist of USA interests in
the Russian government.
Today we see a similar American lobby in Russian government regarding Russian
Far Eastern policies, when the federal government doesn’t allow local industries
to develop, but when Americans come here they are provided with a “red carpet”.
In 1904 USA offered to the Russian government a famous project of
Alaskan-Siberian Railway with a tunnel under the Bering Straight. Just do
you think that Russia was only offered a railroad from Alaska along the Russian
Pacific Rim and deep into Siberia ? Instead , Americans requested a 25 mile
free trade zone around the railways line of detachment customs free zone
with a right of independent business and other activities. It is interesting
to note, that Russian Czar confirmed this project, and only traditional
bureaucratic red tape and then the World War did not allow it to come true.
Today we can say that USA revives its Great Pacific Politics and first of
all the same old projects of gradual colonization of the Far East and Siberia.
In 1991 the office of “Transcontinental Railway and Bering Straight Tunnel”
was registered . They considered the same old projects . When the Association
“Far East-Zabaikalye” was struggling for confirmation of the long-term federal
program for development of the Far East-Zabaikalye, than the Russian Economic
Ministry silently included that project into the program. We never requested
or offered that project to the government. It is like in 19-th Century, somebody
at the “Czar suite” silently lobbies American interests.
We also see some other signs of this lobby. For example, in 1990 Gorbachyov
signed an agreement about the transfer of our big Pacific Ocean economic
zone area to the USA, which was not ratified by the Supreme Soviet and de-jure
is an illegal act. But USA Coast Guards took that area under its protection.
It is a dangerous sign of “Alaskan Syndrome”. Any way it’s not so easy to
take the Russian Far East and Siberia. But American interests are already
present here. We see a strong lobby of IMF and USA interests in Russian federal
government. Everything is like 150 years ago.
The American Institute of World Politics initiated the project of Siberian
Sates of America. It considers the division of the Russian Pacific Rim and
Siberia into 7 states within USA. It may be a long term lease or purchase
for USD 2-3 trillion , But the main trick is that this money will never cross
the US border. I mean that the money will be used to purchase of new technologies
for Russia in USA and paid as salaries to American specialists and workers
and will provide its economic growth. Why is this project is very popular
in USA? Because it may guarantee raise of the growth of the American economy
for the future 300-400 of years.
I respect the American industrious persistence as they are continuing their
expansionist programs of the past 150 years. But what can I say about us?
We must reconsider what was done during the last 9 years. If we will use
an example of USA and will work hard to accomplish our goals , then we can
enter the 21-st Century as equal partners of the Asian Pacific region, but
not as a colony. Thank you
DOES RUSSIA REALLY NEED THE FAR EAST?
From Alexander Samoiloff
Does Russia Really Need the Far East? That was the subject of domestic radio
and TV hot discussion programs during the last two weeks. Territorial governors,
leading local economists, scientists, politicians, businessmen, entrepreneurs
shared their view on realities of Russian federal policies in the Pacific
Rim of Russia.
On November 19-20 Russian Premier Evgeny Prymakov has stayed for two days
in Khabarovsk on the way from Malaysian APEC summit, and held a meeting with
the “Association Far East – Zabaikalye” (Governors of the Russian territories
eastwards of the Lake Baikal). Head of the Association, the Khabarovsk Krai
Governor Victor Ishayev has expressed the following opinion of the regions.
Historically the Far East and Zabaikalye (40% of Russian Territory) was
considered by Russian Czars, and than by Soviets, as an important military
Pacific frontier post region. In development of the territories Russia was
moved rather by political than economic reasons. In the middle of 19 century
Governor – General of Eastern Siberia Muravyov-Amursky had established all
major Far Eastern cities as a military and paramilitary settlements and naval
ports. Government provided Russian Far Eastern population with all kinds
of benefits and never requested from them any taxes until 1910. Vladivostok
was the major Pacific Naval Base and also enjoyed a status of Porte Franco.
During that time Trans-Siberian Railway together with the world biggest bridge
across the Amur-River were built. Soviets had created in the region a huge
military industrial complex, and over 70% of the Far Eastern economy in 1990
worked for military purposes. Majority of food products and consumer goods
were delivered from central Russia. Local residents enjoyed many social benefits
and higher salaries.
From 1992 Russian government left the region to its own survival and never
really supported any domestic initiatives to enter the Pacific markets by
restructuring and developing of local industries, infrastructure, creating
free economic zones, providing tax benefits and etc. So, in 1998 we see the
following major results of such policies: – Far Eastern Fishing and Merchant
Marine fleets and industries are disorganized and lose their positions. –
Far Eastern wood industries suffer a sharp slump after the disastrous summer
forest fires, which were ignored by federal government. – Far Eastern gold
and mineral resources mining industries hardly survive in the times of good
markets for their production. – It seems that the huge oil and gas projects
Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 may be closed because of State Duma’s and Russian
government’s reluctance to realize Production Sharing Law. –
Far Eastern military industrial complex is almost destroyed and receives
only 10% of orders from the government. Moscow often sabotages signing of
some major arms sales contacts. – Three biggest Russian military districts
(Far Eastern Army, Far Eastern Border Guards and Far Eastern National Guards)
and Russian Pacific Navy did not receive federal funds from the last June
and are in disastrous situation. They are on the verge of famine, and receive
food, heat and electricity support only from local governments and charity
organizations. The similar hardships are beared by all federal law-enforcement
agencies and organizations.
The famous Trans Siberian Railway is losing competition to the new Trans-China
– Kazakhstan Railway, because of high taxes, energy and fuel cost. In 1998
the amount of railways transit traffic slumped to 50%. Next year Trans-Siberian
Railway may lose over 30% of its today’s traffic. But during Soviets
thisTrans-Siberian Railway provided to the nation USD 3.00 billion of revenue
per year. – BAM (4324-km long Northern Trans-Siberian Railway built in 1979)
works at 10% of its 10 mln tons annual traffic capacity. Now local governments
have a problem to support and evacuate the population from that rich with
natural resources areas.
Major Far Eastern seaports Vostochny and Vanino work at 20-30% of their capacity.
– Many Far Eastern territories suffer disastrous situation with fuel, heating,
electric power and food supply. But this region is rich with energy and natural
resources. – Russian government takes from the territories the bulk of regional
revenue in the form of high federal taxes and doesn’t return back due to
them funds. For example, issued by the Japanese government loan to the
development of the Far Eastern economy was received by Moscow and never reached
Together with that we see a fast economic development of the neighboring
China. We watch increase of Chinese ethnic population in the Russian Far
East and penetration of Chinese capital. Never in Russian history any government
treated its territories in this way. Far Eastern territories understand that
Russian government today has no funds and also understand the situation in
the country. The Far East is thirsting for creation of a better industrial
investment environment and a fair distribution of revenues. It is the last
chance of Russian government to hold with Russia this territories. Today
Russia has only two ways: to take am emergency measures for saving Far Eastern
economy or to develop and implement a plan for evacuation of Russians from
Evgeny Prymakov has assured that now he understands the regional problems,
but will not give any promises. He stressed that it’s better for Russian
government not to give promises but to make the regional situation going
to better with a real action. Russian Premier and Victor Ishayev visited
a military aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-Na-Amure and a number of big construction
sites in Khabarovsk. Evgeny Prymakov highly praised Victor Ishayev for creation
of a better economic situation in Khabarovsk Krai compare to other Far Eastern
At the same time Vice Premier Gennady Kulik, who is responsible for agricultural
sector had a meeting with leaders of the Far Eastern agricultural industries.
In his speech Kulik blamed agriculturists for the “following the easiest
way of processing imported agricultural raw materials, like cheap Chinese
raw meat”, and said that now government gives them a possibility to win domestic
food markets. He stressed that there are few good standing agricultural companies
in Khabarovsk Krai and others must follow up this good example.
The meeting of Vice-Premier highly reminded us a traditional Soviet
PARTKHOZACTIVE (Local Industries Reports to Communist Party Meeting) scenario,
when a First Communist Party Secretary, after hearing out of some complaints,
usually blames the industrialists and give them an example of a Good Boy.
THE 21 CENTURY PRICE OF A BOTTLE OF VODKA IN KHABAROVSK
By Antonina Greshnikh, Professor of the Far Eastern Police Academy
The Russian-Chinese governmental relations are developing in a civilized
way. Together with that, we have many local problems which stay behind the
scenes and are not widely reflected by the Russian press. One of them is
the problem of Chinese migration into the Russian territories.
Today in the Russian Far East we have a popular joke like: The question:
“How much will cost Russian vodka in Khabarovsk in the 21-st Century?” The
answer: “100 Chinese Yuans”. Today we feel that Russia has not created a
proper environment for an open economy and migration of aliens into Russia.
The 80% or about 800,000 Chinese who now stay in Russia are illegal immigrants.
And the Russian Far East is an open traffic gate for them.
Some part of the Chinese immigrants are moved by their private interests,
but together with that we know about the global migration policy of Chinese
government. The fast developing China has a high unemployment rate, which
is reported as 175 mln people. The Chinese come to the Russian Far East as
an agricultural and low paid construction workers. Chinese criminal business
now actively penetrates the Russian Far East. Many illegal Chinese travel
through Russia to the West European countries. Also, we have information
that the Chinese government supports and facilitates the presence of the
Chinese in the Far East.
We have watched the rapid growth of the Chinese Diaspora in our southern
regions. Their number today already is bigger than a number of native people.
Chinese have rented land and established there a number of official Chinese
settlements. They often set up Russian-Chinese joint ventures just to get
quotas and licenses for export of Russian strategic commodities. All these
structures are a ‘basic support points” for illegal immigration.
The Chinese use few illegal immigration channels to Russia. The first way
is a free (without visa) “Chelnok” exchange. They often use profits received
in Russia to rent land areas, purchase real estate and counterfeited Russian
documents through trusted Russians. Another way is to enter Russia as the
contractual workers. Also, we have few examples when Chinese enter Russia
with counterfeited passports and registering false marriagees to stay in
Khabarovsk and appeal for Russian citizenship.
Illegal Chinese immigration creates two problems. Today we see an increase
of their criminal activities, like smuggling from Russia of hard currency,
strategic commodities, medical herbs, marine products and brining drugs and
firearms. Chinese criminal gangs control automobile and railway border passing
points, trade companies and Chelnoks. They supply Russian criminal gangs
with Chinese firearms and cooperate in illegal prostitution export businesses
. During this year we registered 500 of murders committed by the Chinese
in Russia. Such rapid growth of Chinese migration may become one of the major
Russian National Security problems in the future.
Today Russia has not a general legal system for solving of the illegal
immigration problems. We still use the old Soviet legal acts issued in 1981.
To enter the legal environment of the world community, Russia must create
a proper legal base for the control of aliens during their incoming, outgoing
and stay in its territory and to issue a number of special legal acts on
criminal activities of aliens. For example, the deportation of an illegal
immigrant to China today is done at the cost of Russian budget. We know about
the growth of Chinese population in USA, Canada and other countries. But
what makes us feel different is that the Russian Far East with its scarce
Russian population (1 person per 1 sq. Kilometer) borders the fast developing
and overpopulated China. In this way we really can talk about threat to the